Raleigh Market Reports

New Home Sales Show Unexpected Increase in October 2009

New Home Inventory at Lowest Level Since 1971

The US Department of Commerce released surprising statistics today regarding new home sales across the nation.

October 2009 showed a 6.2% increase in new home sales versus September 2009.

October 2009 new home sales were also up 5.1% from October 2008. 

This is the sixth time new home sales have risen over the past seven months, according to reports.

Additionally, new home inventory is now at record low levels.

There were 239,000 new homes on the market nationally at the end of October 2009.

This is a 6.7 month supply at current new home sales levels.

Available new homes are at their lowest level since 1971, according to Michelle Meyer, an economist with Barclays Capital.

Many builders are shying away from "spec homes" that may sit on the market, and instead are focusing on "building to order." 

Homebuyers in the Raleigh area are sometimes surprised to find little standing inventory, and to hear that most new homes are selling at 95-100% of asking price.

Raleigh NC New Home Resources - Building a Home in Raleigh

 

Raleigh NC New Home Builders

 

Build On Your Lot in Raleigh, NC

 

Accessible Homes NC – Accessible Builders in Raleigh

 

Acreage Lots for Sale Raleigh, NC

 

Golf Course Communities – New Homes on a Golf Course in Raleigh

 

Raleigh, NC New Home Lots and Land

 

 

I've been reading more of these stories every day, and just had to share.  Brian Block of Northern VA & D.C. Real Estate works in the Arlington, VA area, but I've heard similar stories in markets across the US, and even right here in Raleigh. 

In Raleigh NC, the price points most likely to have multiple offers are at $200K and under, but it's not unheard of for a higher price point in a prime location.  And Johnston County's Parade of Homes has noted the highest attendance in the past 4 years! 

Bottom line - offering 25%, 50%, or even 75% of asking price just isn't going to result in a sale.  Most sellers have already adjusted their asking prices to reflect the differences in the market, and most homes are selling for at least 95% of these asking prices. 

Have a great week...

Raleigh Durham Chapel Hill Market Report - Relocation Information

August 2009 vs August 2008 - Resale Listings and Showings Year Over Year

Showings in the Triangle Area showed a 5% increase over the previous August, the first year over year increase since the real estate market started to slow.

What's also interesting is the percent change in number of resale listings by area.  The number of resale homes available has decreased significantly in about half the Triangle market areas, while showings have increased in nearly every area.

Cary, Apex, Morrisville - resale listings up 16%, resale showings down by 3%

North Raleigh/Falls Lake Area - resale listings up 2%, resale showings up by 7%

Durham County - resale listings down 5%, resales showings up by 4%

Southwest Cary, Holly Springs, and Fuquay-Varina - resale listings down 3%, resale showings flat

Wake Forest - resale listings down 9%, resale showings up by 24%

Johnston County - resale listings flat, resale showings up by 18%

Raleigh Inside the Beltline - resale listings up 14%, resale showings up by 6%

Chapel Hill, Carrboro - resale listings up 12%, resale showings down by 4%

North East Raleigh - resale listings down 10%, resale showings up by 8%

Southeast Raleigh, Garner - resale listings down 4%, resale showings up by 8%

East Wake County - resale listings down 14%, resales showings up by 5%

Chatham County - resale listings up 17%, resale showings up by 14%

 

Bottom Line for Resale Buyers - If you're looking at resale homes in North Raleigh, Durham County, Wake Forest, Johnston County, Northeast Raleigh, Southeast Raleigh/Garner, or East Wake County, you've got a lot of competition!  Resale listings are DOWN, and resale showings are UP, in some cases significantly.

Looking for a deal?  Try an area where there are more listings and fewer buyers.

 

Most Up-to-Date Raleigh Market Reports - How is the Housing Market in Raleigh?

 

This Wake County Resale Showings Report brought to you by Stanton Homes.

 

All statistical information courtesy of Stacey Anfindsen's TARR (Triangle Area Residential Realty) Reports.  Anfindsen analyzes sales and inventory of Triangle real estate. 

 

Raleigh Relocation Information

Pending Home Sales Rise for 5th Straight Month

Resales Rise for 3rd Straight Month - Best Since July 2003!

It appears the worst is over, both nationally and locally, for the housing market.  Good news for anyone relocating or even looking for a move-up home.

According to today's news:

- Pending Home Sales in June rose 3.6 percent to 94.6, for a fifth consecutive month of gains.

- Last time we saw five consecutive months of increases was July 2003.

- Home resales increased 4% in June, and rose for the third month in a row (first time in 5 years).

In the South, pending home sales jumped 7.1 in June, for a total of 100.7.

Of course real estate does vary regionally, and prices can vary considerably throughout the Triangle.  But it does appear that the bottom of the real estate market has come.....and gone. 

Read Yahoo News Story

Will My New Raleigh Area Home Appreciate? What's the Best City to Buy a Home?

Durham NC Inventory Disappearing! 23% Down...

 

 

Raleigh NC New Home Resources - Building a Home in Raleigh

 

Raleigh NC New Home Builders

 

Build On Your Lot in Raleigh, NC

 

Accessible Homes NC – Accessible Builders in Raleigh

 

Acreage Lots for Sale Raleigh, NC

 

Golf Course Communities – New Homes on a Golf Course in Raleigh

 

Raleigh, NC New Home Lots and Land

 

Most Up-to-Date Raleigh Market Reports - How is the Housing Market in Raleigh?

 

New Homes Garner NC

Garner Inventory Down Nearly 20% From 2008

Easier to Buy A Garner Home in 2009

Why?  Because there are fewer homes to look at!  That means fewer top choices to pick between, which can make the buying process a little easier. 

Here's the April 2009 Inventory Levels, by price point.

As you can see, inventory is down significantly in every Garner NC price point but the 0-149.9 (which is level), and the Condo/Townhouse category, which has increased from 26 to 41 listings. 

This gets even more dramatic when looking at a percentage basis:

In April 2009, we see dramatic inventory decreases starting at the $150K price point and continuing across all other price points in Garner NC.  The selections are actually getting thinnest above $300K. 

Total Garner NC inventory is down by 17% in April 2009 vs April 2008.

Surprising, since first time homebuyers have been increasing in the market - would have thought the lowest price buckets would see the highest inventory declines.

But this could also be a reflection of fewer homes being built in other price points.  It's now more likely that a homebuyer will select their new home and then break ground, rather than choosing from a variety of "already completed" new homes. 

 

Raleigh NC New Home Resources - Building a Home in Raleigh

 

Raleigh NC New Home Builders

 

Build On Your Lot in Raleigh, NC

 

Accessible Homes NC – Accessible Builders in Raleigh

 

Acreage Lots for Sale Raleigh, NC

 

Golf Course Communities – New Homes on a Golf Course in Raleigh

 

Raleigh, NC New Home Lots and Land

 

Most Up-to-Date Raleigh Market Reports - How is the Housing Market in Raleigh?

 

Raleigh Relocation Information

North Durham NC Inventory Dropping Dramatically

Almost 1/4 Less Than Last Year - Selections Thinning

First Quarter statistics are in for Durham County - and the results might be surprising.

If you've been searching for your next home in Durham NC, you may have thought the selection was a little thinner.  You're right.  Inventory is dropping dramatically from last year, and the best homes at the best prices are sometimes only available for a few days.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Durham Shows Significant Reduction in Lower Price Points

Here's the available inventory levels by price point in North Durham.  As you can see, all price points below $500K show much lower inventory levels than last year.

Not only that, but New Construction sales in Durham have significantly INCREASED in the first quarter.  New Construction in Durham is up 48.7%, with 171 unit sales in 1Q 2009, versus 115 unit sales in 1Q 2008.

 

Where is Inventory Decreasing Most Rapidly in North Durham?

The most significant inventory drops actually occured in the $300-$399K, $400-499K, and $800-899K price points.

Surprising, since first time homebuyers have been increasing in the market - would have thought the lowest price buckets would see the highest inventory declines.

But this could also be a reflection of fewer homes being built in other price points.

 

 

 

Durham NC Home Inventory Levels

These percentages reflect both new construction and resale inventory.  As you can see, selections have thinned considerably across nearly every price point in North Durham. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Triangle Area Market Reports

 

Wake County Inventory Levels April 2009

Luxury Home Inventory - First Quarter 2009

Appreciation Rates Wake County - Best Places to Buy 

 

 

Is the Buyers Market Going Away?

Based on pending sales and numbers of properties on the market, it looks like this trend will continue, and we may reach a seller's market by the end of the year. 

Surprising? Perhaps not so much - interest rates have never been lower, and builders have been slowing the new home process. 

 

Durham, NC New Home Resources:

Durham Lots and Land

Durham, NC New Homes

Acreage Lots Available in Durham, NC

Golf Course Community Homes – Durham NC Golf Communities

 

Raleigh Relocation Package

Cary/Apex/Morrisville Luxury Home Market Report

Inventory Shrinking and Selections Narrowing - First Quarter 2009

The number of new homes available at luxury price points - $500,000 and above - has been steadily shrinking in the prime Cary/Apex/Morrisville area.

There are fewer homes available now than in 2008 in every price point below $900,000.

And new home inventory has been reduced by a whopping 24% since the same quarter in 2008!  Thus if you're looking for a new luxury home this year, you have 3 homes to look at right now for every 4 homes that were available last year. 

Resale home inventory in Cary/Apex/Morrisville has increased, from 178 homes in 1Q 2008 to 184 homes in 1Q 2009.

New home inventory in Cary/Apex/Morrisville has decreased, from 157 homes in1Q 2008 to 119 homes in 1Q 2009.

Here's a breakdown by price point:

As you can see, inventory has reduced in every price point except the $900K-$2mil market in the Cary/Apex/Morrisville NC area.

Surprising? Perhaps not so much - interest rates have never been lower, and builders have been slowing the new home process.  It won't be surprising to see an even greater decrease in inventory levels over the next quarter. 

Want to see the most recent Raleigh area market reports?

More Raleigh Market Reports

Wake County NC New Homes

Wake County New Home Communities

Wake County NC New Homes

Wake County NC Property Tax Rates 2011

New Homes on Acreage in Apex, NC

Cary, NC New Home Lots and Land

 

All statistical information courtesy of Stacey Anfindsen's TARR (Triangle Area Residential Realty) Reports.  Anfindsen analyzes sales and inventory of Triangle real estate. 

Market Reports - Triangle NC

Thought this was a very interesting response to a local news story.   The author of the letter is Stacey Anfindsen, a renowned local appraiser, consultant, and educator who spends a significant amount of time studying statistics for the Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill real estate market.  He's been quoted on many occassions as an area expert.  Stacey's TARR reports are an excellent source of information, with easy to read statistics and graphs drawn from all area sales and listing data.

Here's his letter, along with a link to the original story:

Gerrick Brenner

WTVD News

Durham, NC

Gerrick,

I have just viewed your report that aired on 2/23/09 at the following link; http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=news/local&id=6674500 and I take exception to the following;

1). The length of the story was 2:22, the first 19 seconds were devoted to the good news regarding house prices, the rest was devoted to the bad. As we discussed in our phone conversation, if you are going to present stories about homeowners who have lost money on residential housing, you need to balance that with stories regarding those who have made money.

2). You stated that Bedford is a development containing 500k+ housing, Larry Stogner referenced values up to a million. This is a misrepresentation of the development. There were 144 closings in the past 13 months within Bedford with house prices between 140k‐875k and a median sales price of 392k.

3). Your illustrations of 3 houses that sold, while factually correct, misrepresent what is going on in the overall market. As I stated in our phone conversation, I do not think that it is appropriate to find examples of houses that were overpriced at initial list, stayed on the market an extensive period due to that overpricing, and then took a significant discount from initial list to sell. You would need to balance that with examples of houses that were priced correctly and sold in under 90 days. If you had asked, I would have provided you with such examples. To your credit, you did mention one line about unrealistic list prices.

4). As an appraiser, I take great exception to lay people making statements of value regarding residential housing. Your comment regarding the current value of the Norowskis' house based upon what the house sold for next door borders on journalistic malpractice. If you were an appraiser, I would file a complaint with the North Carolina Appraisal Board.

5). The final line by Larry Stogner regarding house prices declining 3.5% also borders on journalistic malpractice. He did not define his source and he did not define values. I will attempt to enlighten you regarding house prices in Bedford at Falls River.

During 2008, there were 138 closings with a median sales price of 392k.

During 2007, there were 295 closings with a median sales price of 360k.

Based upon a comparison of the 2 most recent years of sales, there has been a 9% increase in the median sales price.

Within my database of Wake County closings, I track the percentage gain or loss from prior sales price.

Here are the figures for Bedford;

There have been 85 re‐sales within the past 13 months, 77 of these have a prior recorded purchase price. Of these 77, there have been 15 sellers who have sold for less than prior purchase price. The remaining 62 sold for more than prior purchase and the median percent per year gain has been 2.78%.

Of the 77, there have been 50 detached re‐sale closings. There have been 7 sellers who have sold for less than prior purchase and 43 who have sold for more than prior purchase. The median percent per year gain has been 2.88%.

I also track active listings and compare current list price with prior purchase price. I have 41 active listings in my database within the Bedford development. There are currently 8 sellers where current list price is less than prior purchase. The remaining 33 are priced above prior purchase and the median percent per year "gain" is 2.74%.

These are not the statistics of a development with house prices falling +/‐25% as inferred with your story.

Myself and others within the real estate community want the media to provide a balanced picture of what is going on in our market. To present an unbalanced story as you did on 2/23/09 only perpetuates fear with consumers and keeps them within their foxholes. In spite of reports regarding the downfall of traditional media, both print and televised media still hold great power over the consumer.

You should use this power wisely.

I would be more than willing to assist you on further stories, but you were not specific about what you were going to report on the Bedford development.

Thanks for your time.

Stacey Anfindsen

Birch Appraisal Group

The above letter was written by Stacey Anfindsen of Birch Appraisal Group.  Very interesting points made by a "numbers guy".

Want to see the most recent Raleigh area market reports?

Raleigh Market Reports - How is the Housing Market in Raleigh?

 

Raleigh NC New Home Resources - Building a Home in Raleigh

 

Raleigh NC New Home Builders

 

Build On Your Lot in Raleigh, NC

 

Accessible Homes NC – Accessible Builders in Raleigh

 

Acreage Lots for Sale Raleigh, NC

 

Golf Course Communities – New Homes on a Golf Course in Raleigh

 

Raleigh, NC New Home Lots and Land

 

 

Raleigh Real Estate Reports

Raleigh Resales On the Rise?

Home Resales Increase Dramatically, Inventory Decreases in Wake County NC

December 2008 numbers show that Wake County real estate market is starting to trend back up.  After being down significantly to last year over a slow fall season, Raleigh NC resales are picking up - and inventory is dropping.

The Raleigh, NC real estate market hasn't seen anything like the picture on the national level.  As a matter of fact, appreciation is still 4%, that's a positive 4%, for 2008!

However, sales have been slower than the past couple of boom years.  But it looks like that trend is starting to turn.

Wake County Real Estate Resales - 2008 vs 2007

November took a significant dip, but over the past six months resale numbers were down to 2007.  Even the expiration of the first time homebuyer assistance programs at the end of September didn't bring sales up to 2007 levels. 

But December 2008 showed a significant increase, as buyers across the board took advantage of lower interest rates.  Sales were down only 5% to last year. 

Does this mean these homes were given away?

Let's look at price trends.

Average Resale Price Wake County NC 2008 vs 2007

As you can see, the average resales price has been UP to 2007 in most months, and saw a significant increase in December 2008 (5.79%).  

So it doesn't look the increase in sales is due to deep discounts.  Since appreciation is also up, this could mean a trending towards sales of higher priced resale homes.  

What about inventory?  Are there a ton of homes on the market? 

Not really.

Inventory has been decreasing throughout 2008, and December 2008 inventory was up only 2.45% to 2007.

Total Available Homes for Sale Wake County NC 2008 vs 2007

In December 2008, total available inventory (new homes, resale homes, townhomes) was down to only 2.45% above total available inventory the previous year.  As you can see, this is a significant downtrend in available inventory.

Why is inventory decreasing?

Increased sales, and less new construction.  Permits have been down.  Instead of lots of spec homes to choose from, builders are opting for presales and custom projects. 

Homebuyers can still find some bargains - and we have yet to see January 2009 sales. 

Current months of supply in Wake County, NC is 6 months, with some variation by area.  This is a fairly balanced market. 

But overall, it looks like a number of homebuyers that were waiting for great interest rates have decided to buy, and there's no question that there are fewer homes on the market to look at than there were 6 months ago.

Information from TARR Reports, an independent analysis of Triangle real estate.

 

Want to see the most recent Raleigh area market reports?

More Raleigh Market Reports 

 

Raleigh NC New Home Resources - Building a Home in Raleigh

 

Raleigh NC New Home Builders

 

Build On Your Lot in Raleigh, NC

 

Accessible Homes NC – Accessible Builders in Raleigh

 

Acreage Lots for Sale Raleigh, NC

 

Golf Course Communities – New Homes on a Golf Course in Raleigh

 

Raleigh, NC New Home Lots and Land

 

The Raleigh area market has remained much stronger than almost anywhere else in the country - and overall appreciation rates are still at a POSITIVE 4% for the year, after steady 4-6% appreciation over the past 5 years.

But this post, and other articles like it, may be good news for anyone trying to sell another property out of state so that they can move in to their new home in Raleigh! 

And one more thing that it doesn't mention:  the $7500 tax credit for first time homebuyers, which several buyers I know are taking advantage of right now.

Thanks, Debe, for sharing these articles!